2025 is shaping up to be a year of uncertainty for the country and for the broader job market. We’re entering a hunker down period beyond the normal holiday/year-end slow down where we can expect to see less talent movement across companies; many employees will be unwilling to leave the safety of their current role for the risk of an unknown company.
This will have ramifications for both candidates and companies alike, with the likelihood that we’ll experience an extended period of talent shortages that we’ve seen for the past several years.
Entering the new year, companies were already coping with the prospect of Goliath challenges in talent acquisition. The looming uncertainty in the market is set to compound the problem. Take a glance at the job boards for the top ten U.S. carriers and you’ll find hundreds if not thousands of openings waiting to be filled. This illustrates the complex, systemic challenge of attracting new talent that has been facing the industry. Early 2025 will see the market going in two directions: not only is the need for talent increasing, the likelihood of talent changing jobs is also decreasing which creates a compounding effect in terms of supply and demand.
While companies can reasonably expect a lower level of existing employee turnover – a minor benefit – the ability to fill openings will consequently become more daunting if less employees are willing to leave their current companies. Questions will arise in boardrooms across the nation as to what has been – or could have been – done in preparation for this very situation. Those companies that have taken strategic steps to fortify their resilience will likely fare well. Companies that did not plan well and implement safeguards will only see their problems grow.
2025 may well be a talent-seller’s market. Those workers willing to brave the market may be best served to be aggressive and selective in their pursuits. Armed with the knowledge that companies are facing a dearth in talent along with a mountain of job postings to fill, candidates will not only have the advantage of a myriad of options to choose from, but they may also be bolder at the bargaining table when negotiating compensation packages with an employer desperate to fill a role.
While the hope may have been that the new year would steady the shifting sands of the talent landscape, that doesn’t appear to be the case. Instead, we expect to be faced with uncertainty and unease that will have a lasting impact on candidates and companies. The coming year may well foster the dramatic change the industry needs as it heads towards a period of profound transformation in the coming years.
By Matt Nickens, Partner, Coleman Search Group
